Alex Snowdon on Israel’s mounting offensive, Labour’s budget for the bosses and a fillip for anti-racists  

Both the irrationality of the current Middle East crisis and the incoherence of US policy were expressed in a headline at the weekend: ‘Joe Biden says he hopes latest Israeli strike on Iran will end escalation’. How exactly can an act of escalation end escalation?

His comment to journalists – “I hope this is the end” – conveyed a kind of blind and desperate optimism that ignores reality. It also revealed his own administration’s inability to shape events in the region it wishes to dominate.

The covert ‘shadow war’ between Israel and Iran is rapidly turning into an overt ‘shooting war’. Contrary to how most Western media frame events, this is primarily the result of Israel’s behaviour. Since 7 October 2023 – the start of Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza – Israel has been gradually expanding its war, confronting Lebanon-based Hezbollah and the Iranian state in addition to its genocidal war on the Palestinians in Gaza (and escalating repression in the occupied West Bank).

Israel sent fighter jets and drones to bomb military sites in Iran on Saturday. The assault was Israel’s first direct bombing raid on Iran’s territory after months of its dangerous, provocative activity beyond Gaza itself. This included April’s attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Syrian capital Damascus and July’s killing of Ismail Haniyeh, political leader of Hamas, in Tehran. More recently, Israel killed hundreds of people in Lebanon – including its assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.

Israel’s assault on Saturday did not really satisfy anyone. Opposition parties inside Israel regard it as too little, with Yair Lapid – Israel’s Leader of the Opposition – claiming Israel could have “exacted a higher price”. There are ‘hawks’ – in both the government and the opposition – who wanted Israel’s operations to go further, targeting Iran’s nuclear and energy facilities, perhaps even attempting assassinations of high-level Iranian leaders.

The wider world – from the United Nations to the European Union to the Gulf Cooperation Council – has condemned Israel’s attack. In Biden’s administration, there is ongoing broad support for Israel and relief that it didn’t go further in its attacks, but also anxiety about what this could lead to.

The US-Israel relationship is close but strained: the Israeli garrison state depends upon US weaponry in both Gaza and Lebanon, while also benefiting from US missile systems to deter Iran. Biden gave Netanyahu the green light for Israel’s attack on Iran, but there is nervousness about what might follow.

Biden’s claim that this could be ‘the end’ is contradicted by Israel’s national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who called Saturday’s operations “an opening blow”. His reference to Israel’s “historic duty to remove the Iranian threat to destroy Israel” does not suggest de-escalation. It is even possible that Israel could proceed with further air strikes escalating to a ground invasion.

This is happening at the same time as attacks on Lebanon and the genocide in Gaza continue. There were explosions in Lebanon’s capital Beirut on Saturday night, following Israeli military warnings to evacuate.

Northern Gaza, meanwhile, is enduring horror upon horror. The UN’s humanitarian coordinator Joyce Msuya issued a statement saying: “The entire population of Gaza is at risk of dying”. Israeli generals recently presented a plan to Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet that outlined ‘surrender or starve’ tactics. Such war crimes are what we now see unfolding.

It is the Gaza genocide that underpins everything else that is dangerous in the region. Without a halt in Israel’s genocide, the wider region will continue to be highly turbulent – and maybe worse. With the US presidential election approaching in just over a week, it is hard to see US politics tilting the balance in a better direction. Kamala Harris represents continuity Biden, while Donald Trump threatens to be even more belligerent and aggressive.

Here in the UK, too, we have the hopelessly incoherent Keir Starmer, who refuses to break from allegiance to Washington. Any hope in British politics lies in the mass Palestine solidarity and anti-war movements, not in the realm of official politics. Saturday’s national demonstration – with the slogans End the genocide in Gaza, Hands off Lebanon, Don’t Attack Iran – will be crucial. Just three days before the presidential election, large numbers will march to the US Embassy.

Reeves’ budget: a major test

We have been given some indications of what to expect in Wednesday’s budget, the first to be delivered by Rachel Reeves, chancellor of the exchequer, after the end of 14 years of Tory rule. It is deeply underwhelming, to say the least.

It is reported that £1.4 billion will go to the schools re-building programme. But this is merely a continuation of a programme announced by then prime minister Boris Johnson in 2020. The increase on last year’s figure is merely £550 million. This isn’t the sort of ambition required to address the woeful state of our schools estate after many years of neglect and under-funding. And it doesn’t begin to address the wider crisis in school funding and the urgent need to invest in education.

The declaration that investment in breakfast clubs will be ‘tripled’ is a triumph of spin. It is starting from a very low base. The increase means that £30 million will be spent on the scheme in 2025-26, which is small change for the Treasury. It is only a tenth of the figure that Labour pledged to achieve by 2028.

The £1.8 billion pledged to fund an expansion of child care is more substantial, but falls a very long way short of what’s needed. Child care should be seen as an investment, not a cost. Labour’s plans are a long way from the universal free child care provision that would make a real impact. This could be funded through the kind of wealth taxes that would raise enormous sums, yet are considered unthinkable by Reeves and her team.

We don’t know exactly what will be in the budget, but prepare for a combination of very minimal increases in spending and increases in taxes (but not the sort targeted at the wealthiest). Labour’s version of austerity is likely to be somewhat different to Tory austerity – more emphasis on putting up taxes that affect the great majority of people, less on direct spending cuts – but it will be economically and socially damaging. It will need to be challenged by trade unions and social movements alike.

A step forward for anti-racists

Waiting in the wings to exploit Labour’s failures are three political forces: an increasingly hard-right Tory Party, the racist populism of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, and the fascist street movement that Tommy Robinson seeks to build. All of these need to be opposed vigorously by the left and the unions.

Saturday’s national demonstration against Tommy Robinson – organised by Stand up to Racism and attracting around 25,000 people – was a major step forward in confronting the far right. Anti-racists outnumbered the racists and the balance was radically different to July, when Tommy Robinson supporters greatly outnumbered anti-racists and anti-fascists. It was that demonstration which emboldened far right activists to stir up the racist violence we witnessed in August.

A major strength on Saturday was the big co-ordinated trade union mobilisation. This trade union commitment to anti-racism and anti-fascism needs to be sustained and built on. We should also be extending this to the Palestine solidarity national demonstrations. Previous demonstrations have seen many union banners being carried, but not on the scale seen in London on Saturday.

Racism and war are both union issues. The protest movements benefit from greater union participation, but we also strengthen our unions when we embed these political issues in what we do.