Any illusions that Cop summits will achieve progress while the fossil-fuel interests dominate should now be laid to rest, argues John Clarke

The 29^th Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop29) is underway in Azerbaijan and it has been marked by controversy. Sharp questions are being raised as to the effectiveness of the Cop meetings, with some suggesting that the UN’s climate initiative has simply failed.

At the outset, UN climate chief Simon Stiell declared, perhaps a little defensively, that the UNFCCC process ‘is the only place where we can address the rampant climate crisis, and to credibly hold each other to account to act on it. And we know this process is working. Because without it, humanity would be headed towards five degrees of global warming.’

Stiell went on to acknowledge that ‘I’m as frustrated as anyone that one single COP can’t deliver the full transformation that every nation needs … [but] it is here that Parties need to agree a way out of this mess. That’s why here in Baku, we must agree a new global climate finance goal.’ He insisted that ‘We cannot leave Baku without a substantial outcome.’

No longer ‘fit for purpose’

Stiell’s confidence isn’t universally shared and dissenting voices are now being raised even within entirely respectable and moderate circles. The BBC reports that a letter sent to the UN by ‘key experts including a former UN secretary general and former UN climate chief’ has concluded that the climate talks ‘are “no longer fit for purpose” and need an urgent overhaul.’

The drafters of the letter stress that ‘countries should not host the talks if they don’t support the phase-out of fossil energy.’ This comes after the Azerbaijani president ‘told world leaders gathered in his country for COP29 that natural gas was a “gift from God” and he shouldn’t be blamed for bringing it to market.’ Prior to this misstep, ‘a senior Azerbaijani official appeared to have used his role at COP to arrange a meeting to discuss potential fossil fuel deals.’

The authors conclude with regard to the Cop process that its ‘current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity.’ This argument is hard to dispute since at ‘last year’s COP28 meeting in Dubai all countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. But 12 months later emissions of warming gases have increased once again, up by almost 1%.’ The letter calls for ‘smaller, more frequent COPs with clear accountability for the promises that countries make.’

Those who drafted this letter, though they point to several glaring problems, remain hopeful that the Cop initiative can be redirected along useful lines. It is necessary, however, to call this assumption into question and consider whether the players involved in these summits can be expected to make and enforce the decisions that would seriously address the global climate threat.

The choice of another major centre of oil production for this year’s Cop summit isn’t by any means coincidental. After last year’s gathering in Dubai, the Intercept noted that the ‘fossil fuel industry has been deeply involved in the annual COPs since they began in the 1990s … But this year, the industry is closer than ever to one of the most important international climate forums.’

Sultan Al Jaber, who was the Cop28 president, also headed the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. US climate envoy John Kerry was ready to describe the selection of Al Jaber to preside over the climate summit as a ‘terrific choice.’ As absurd as this may seem, it is actually in line with the assumptions that underlie the Cop initiative. The whole approach is based on the notion that the climate crisis can be addressed through a process of self-reform and responsible transition, in which governments and oil companies will collaboratively set targets and implement them.

On this basis, the involvement of fossil fuel interests is presented as a positive step forward. However, the evidence is clear that emissions are not being tackled in any realistic way, while oil and gas companies have become experts in the stalling tactics that enable them to conduct a destructive business-as-usual approach in the face of impending catastrophe.

The co-option of the climate summits by fossil-fuel companies continues to intensify with every passing year and this time the effort to promote the bogus strategy of carbon capture has reached even greater levels. The Guardian notes that 1,773 oil and gas lobbyists were in attendance and these included at least ‘480 lobbyists working on carbon capture and storage (CCS)’

The CCS lobbyists, moreover, were well-placed to play an influential role. Nearly ‘half of the lobbyists were granted access as members of national delegations, affording them greater access to negotiations, including 55 who were invited as “guests” by the Azerbaijani government, which is hosting this year’s climate summit, and given what some at the conference are calling “red-carpet treatment”.’

Rachel Kennerley, speaking for the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), argued that ‘we are witnessing fossil-fuel greenwashing by those attempting to delay the inevitable fossil fuels phase-out. This large presence of lobbyists is a confirmation that the carbon capture industry is working hard to promote the misguided CCS technology. But governments and companies simply cannot “clean” their coal, oil, and gas by capturing and “managing” emissions.’

Tellingly, new rules on carbon credits were adopted on the first day of the conference that will be to the liking of fossil-fuel companies. Under these, polluting countries can engage in such activities as planting trees or preserving forests in other countries and count them as progress to meeting their own emission targets. ‘CIEL is concerned that [these rules] could open the door for the increased reliance on CCS’ in place of meaningful climate action.

Climate impacts

As the Cop29 participants haggle over the ongoing failure of rich countries to provide meaningful financing to deal with climate impacts in the Global South and horse trade over climate-action targets, the reality of the global disaster they are enabling becomes clearer than ever.

Climate and Capitalism notes that the ‘extreme heatwaves of 2023, which fueled huge wildfires and severe droughts, also undermined the land’s capacity to soak up atmospheric carbon.’ It adds that ‘… atmospheric carbon concentrations surged by 86% in 2023 compared to the previous year, marking a record high since tracking began in 1958. Despite this sharp increase, fossil fuel emissions only rose by about 0.6% …Typically, land absorbs roughly one-third of human-generated carbon dioxide emissions. However … in 2023, this capacity fell to just one-fifth of its usual level, marking the weakest land carbon sink performance in two decades.’ As emissions continue at a disastrous rate, the ability of the natural world to contain and limit the impacts is being drastically undermined.

It is no wonder that, in the face of such dreadful developments, the UN climate summits struggle to retain credibility. This year, it is possible that the delegates will set some increased targets for climate financing in response to the massive threat that the impacts of climate change pose to people in the Global South. Yet, a report by Oxfam last year showed that a previous commitment to provide a very modest $100 billion each year was not even close to being met.

After Cop28, there were loud cheers that the gathering had accepted the need to ‘transition away from fossil fuels,’ yet emissions have continued to increase regardless of this. Cop21, held in Paris in 2015 was presented as an historic moment when it pledged to keep ‘a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.’

Yet, less than a decade later, the Guardian reports that the ‘internationally agreed goal to keep the world’s temperature rise below 1.5C is now “deader than a doornail”, with 2024 almost certain to be the first individual year above this threshold.’ Moreover, ‘even if current national pledges are met the world is on track for 2.7C,’ with catastrophic results.

The UN’s Cop process is certainly not fit for purpose but hopes that it can be fixed by tweaking conference agendas or finding less controversial venues are badly misplaced. The people who dominate these gatherings and those they answer to have proved over many years that they will continue to put fossil fuel profits ahead of the measures that must be taken to avert climate disaster. The Cop charade is a discredited farce that movements struggling for climate justice must challenge and confront.