A year on from the Gaza genocide, Israel is opening up a second front of war. Michael Lavalette explains what is at stake in the dangerous game being played

Over the last year the focus of Israel’s brutality has been Gaza, but it has repeatedly also lashed out at targets on the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Iran. But now it is clear that Israel intends to mount a war on Lebanon.

The escalation started on Tuesday 17 September with an unprecedented terror attack when Israel blew up personal pagers used by people across Lebanon. The Israeli spy agency Mossad had breached the supply lines of a Taiwan company to insert a small amount of explosives into the devices. The explosions were indiscriminate. The bombs exploded in homes, markets, hospitals and streets. They killed and injured adults and children – Hezbollah members and non-combatant civilians, including medical personnel. The attack was a clear case of state-directed terrorism. 

The following day handheld walkie-talkies exploded – some at the funerals of those killed the day before. There were also reports that some solar panels also exploded.

These attacks are a clear breach of ‘the rules of war’, they are (yet more) war crimes carried out by the Israelis with impunity.

The attacks created a sense of fear and disorientation across Lebanon, but they were merely the precursor of the horrors that were to follow. 

Escalated 

Israel has escalated its attacks via air assaults and long-range missile attacks. The Israelis claim the attacks are limited to the south of Lebanon, but this is not true. They have bombed the south, the east of the country in the Bekaa Valley, and the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. On Monday (23 September) over 500 were killed by Israeli bombs.

The attacks have led to widespread displacement as people flee north in the expectation that an Israeli ground invasion is going to be launch in the next few days.

An obvious question is what is Israel’s end game?

Most military theoreticians would advise against fighting wars on multiple fronts at the same time, so why is Israel doing this now?

As we approach the anniversary of the genocide in Gaza, it’s worth noting that things have not gone at all smoothly for the Israelis. They thought they would have a relatively quick and smooth operation in Gaza, but they have found themselves bogged down in a long war of attrition. Hamas remains active across the strip and Israeli casualties have been greater than expected. Further, the brutality of their Gaza operation has isolated Israel internationally. The popular movement for Palestine, globally, has never been stronger and country after country have distanced themselves from their actions. The reality is that they can only continue because they have the support of the US, Britain, Germany and the EU.

As the year has gone on revelations that many of those Israelis killed on 7 October were killed by Israeli fire, and the disregard the state has for their ‘hostages’ has fuelled growing discontent within Israel. There have been some very large anti-Netanyahu demonstrations across the colonial state. To be clear, these are not pro-Palestinian demonstrations in any shape or form, but they are anti-government and emphasise a growing internal political problem for Netanyahu.

Political problems 

Further, as a consequence of the genocide and wars, the Israeli economy is in some difficulty. The tourist sector is effectively shut. The port of Eilat is closed and the NIS is sliding on world markets. The global BDS movement is having some impact on Israeli produce.  One consequence of their pager attack is that a number of organisations, states and networks across the region are moving providers to more secure (primarily Chinese) communication providers.

So Netanyahu is facing economic and political problems at home.  And of course, he faces the criminal courts in Israel if his government should fall. But this means he is increasingly beholden to the far right in his coalition government. Netanyahu has always been a hawk, but the far right and fascist elements in his government are pushing him to be more aggressive on both the West Bank and in Lebanon as a way of securing ‘Greater Israel’.

The turn to Lebanon is, in part, an attempt to shore up the home front. It is being framed as protection of those in the north (of Palestine48). The aim, so it’s claimed, is to allow them to return home. Listening to Israeli spokespeople, they are re-running their Gaza playbook. They justify the attacks as self-defence, they claim they are only bombing Hezbollah, they assert they are avoiding civilian casualties. None of this is true, of course, just as none of it was true when it was Hamas, rather than Hezbollah who was the bogeyman.

Dangerous game 

But the attack on Lebanon is also part of a wider game. The Israeli government is desperate to pull the Americans into a regional war. Israel’s struggles in Gaza, its continuing failures to deal with the Houthis, its long-running aggressions against Iran can only be ‘solved’ in their interests if the US plays a more direct, interventionist role. The Israelis are upping the stakes in the hope that the Americans will come over the hill to their rescue!

So what of the US in all this?

The US could stop this today, but it continues to back the genocide on Gaza and the aggression in Lebanon. It continues to arm and fund Israel’s war machine. It does so because Israel remains its most reliable satellite in the region – beholden to America and always willing to act in its interests.

There is no doubt that there are significant elements within the US state who are keen to see both Hezbollah and Iran pushed back – something they have been keen to see for years. In a sense, this is Israel acting on its role as imperialism’s ‘watchdog’ state.

And, of course, America finds itself in a pre-election period with a lame-duck president. Nothing is likely to change in US policy before January when a new president is sworn in – and nothing is likely to change significantly whether it’s Trump or Harris who takes on that role.

Israel is playing a dangerous game. Hezbollah is far better armed and trained than Hamas and will pose a very real threat to Israel. In 2006, Israel was forced to retreat in the face of Hezbollah resistance, and it is far better trained, and more battle hardened today than it was then.  The Lebanese state has made it clear that its armed forces will join with Hezbollah if Israel invades. This is a high-risk strategy from Israel, but it is a risk it seems prepared to take in the hope that the US will intervene to tip the balance of forces in the region back in its favour.