Lindsey German on fending off Farage and Ukrainian endgames

Reform UK looks like being much strengthened in this Thursday’s local elections. Predicted to win two mayoralties, in Lincolnshire and Hull, hundreds of council seats, and the Runcorn by election, the party’s advances will be big news as speculation grows as to whether it can form a government at the next general election.

While none of this has been unexpected to campaigners and organisers on the left, it is nonetheless a very worrying development, echoing support for far-right parties across Europe and elsewhere. And, as in other countries, a key reason for Reform’s ascendancy has been the sheer discontent with mainstream parties of right and centre left. The Tories after 14 years in office were thrown out with every area of life in Britain worsening. This was true of living standards, public services, rip off privatised companies, an intractable housing crisis, growing poverty and inequality, and education and health services in long term decline.

On top of this was a near complete lack of trust in politicians who are widely seen as a combination of corrupt, ineffectual, elitist and out of touch. The lacklustre and wooden persona of Keir Starmer has hardly helped these perceptions, nor has he and his ministers’ acceptance of ‘hospitality’ from big business and wealthy donors.

Starmer’s big majority was achieved on a record low vote, with many traditional Labour voters staying at home, or voting for left independents, as well as other parties including Reform. While the Tories had more to lose to Reform last July than Labour, now Farage is at least as interested in the so called ‘red wall’ seats which have long been held by Labour in the north and Midlands. One of his main reasons for rejecting an alliance with the increasingly rump Tory party is that he knows this will not be palatable to former Labour voters in working class areas.

Reform has built on its showing last July by championing issues that appeal to those voters. It opposed the abolition of pensioners’ fuel allowance. It supports the nationalisation of British Steel in Scunthorpe to save jobs. It is against student tuition fees. It plays into people’s worries and fear about housing and jobs.

Central to its appeal is of course the anti-migrant ‘stop the boats’ slogan. Reform has succeeded by falsely claiming that migrants are the ‘problem’ which if dealt with will resolve many of the other issues. The mendacity involved in this is enormous: the housing crisis has nothing to do with migrants who themselves suffer from its consequences. It stems from a combination of lack of social housing, private landlords, and cities where housing is seen as an ‘investment opportunity’. The NHS crisis stems from underfunding and privatisation – and migrants are central to staffing the NHS. Wages are low not because of migrants but because of weak unions and employer ‘deregulation’.

At its core Reform is a racist party – and one that is also using Trump’s ‘culture wars’ to win support – but it would be a mistake to see all its voters in this light. Certainly some of them will be, but many others are clearly motivated by opposition to this and previous governments and a general sense that everything is getting worse and there must be an alternative. But they have alighted on an ‘alternative’ which is nothing of the sort and will result in an attack on all working-class people.

What can we on the left do about it? Obviously continue to oppose the politics of Reform in every way we can. But also look at how we can undercut those politics by providing an alternative. There is much anticipation of a new left electoral alliance which would be welcome. It is welcome that there are a number of left independents standing in these elections and I hope they do well. But that is only one part – and not the main part – of the answer.

We have a vicious Labour government which is determined to continue on the path set by the Tories and even do things they would not have dared do, as Wes Streeting boasted recently. The disabled, pensioners and poor families are already in their sights and other groups will follow, while the ratcheting up of arms spending continues without restraint. The housing crisis is so acute that it is helping fuel division including on grounds of race and nationality.

All these issues have to be fought for on the ground, without relying on even the most principled politicians, because it is by joint activity and organisation that working class people can begin to build a strong left movement. That means principled opposition to Reform, and patient argument with those – including considerable numbers of trade unionists – who may be tempted to vote for them. But it also means confronting the politics of a Labour government committed to imperialism, war and austerity, which is only preparing the ground for the far right.

The TUC general secretary, Paul Novak, attacked Reform at the weekend but also warned Starmer not to move any further to the right in response to its electoral showing. Already Labour has made far too many concessions to the far-right agenda over migrants and refugees. If the left is to grow stronger, it must provide an alternative set of politics to those which are doing such damage. That means understanding that many of those voting Reform out of frustration can be won to our campaigns too.

Ukraine peace won’t end wars

Will there be a peace plan in Ukraine? Trump certainly wants one but events are not totally in his control. Russia has pushed Ukrainian troops out of its Kursk province, already has de facto control of several key areas, and knows that the US will veto Ukraine joining Nato – one of its key concerns. But losing territory is a very bitter pill for Zelensky to swallow and makes his position even more threatened. Not least by the far right.

So it may be that neither side feels it wants Trump’s plan in which case this horrible war will limp on until facts on the ground end it, at huge cost to Ukrainian and Russian people. The British, French and German governments are all very unhappy about any deal and want to continue supplying arms in huge quantities. Several east European countries are pulling out of the Ottawa agreement preventing use of landmines, meaning they expect further wars with Russia.

Given the strategic turn in Europe towards more arms spending, which accords with Trump’s determination to shift military spending to the powers there, any peace and ceasefire in the Ukraine war, welcome though it would be, will not be the end of the matter. Instead, the border and further afield will be heavily armed on all sides. The political consequences in those countries will probably benefit the right and far right. And the arms race will continue, meaning two things.

The first is that the issues fuelling the right will grow as people see further attacks on their living standards and public services, coupled with a nationalism and militarism which tries to turn workers of other countries into our enemy. The second is that this arms race will herald new and even more devastating wars. Already we are seeing the genocide in Gaza, threats of war between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, and the Pacific a centre of conflict between the US and China.

When Rosa Luxemburg said over 100 years ago that humanity faces a future of socialism or barbarism, she could not have imagined the level of weaponry, including nuclear weapons, that we see today. The alternatives have never been starker.

This week: May Day events include the Palestine online organising meeting for the Nakba march and day of action on Thursday, and the Revolution! Weekender in London on Saturday and Sunday. I will be speaking at both. I will also be going to the launch of John Rees’s new book The Fiery Spirits. There’s a great quote from Rhian E. Jones for my talk on intersectionality at Revolution! which focuses on the relationship between oppression and class:

The problems of the “ordinary” working class are inherently intersectional: material disadvantage amplifies, and is amplified by, racism, sexism, homophobia, and ageism, all experienced as real and immediate issues enforced by existing structures of power.