The escalating situation in Syria suggests Turkish expansionism and could lead to wider Middle East conflict, explains Chris Bambery

The situation unfolding in Syria is very dangerous indeed, as it already involves an armed conflict between different states. In particular Turkey has effectively launched a proxy war.

The Syrian fundamentalist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and armed factions supported by Turkey launched a surprise offensive in northwestern Syria, making significant advances toward Aleppo – the country’s second-largest city. 

The HTS offensive came after five years of relative quiet in Syria’s civil war, but with the country partitioned into three. The bulk of it is run by the government of Bashar al-Assad, and there are two mini states, one run by HTS and another by the Syrian Democratic Forces, the main element of which is the Kurdish People’s Defence Units (YPG). The area controlled by the Syrian Democratic forces is regularly attacked by the Turkish armed forces.

Into this mix is the presence of Turkish, American, Iranian and Hezbollah armed forces plus Israel, which has occupied the Golan Heights since 1967 and has regularly carried out airstrikes in Syria.

The HTS offensive marks the first frontline shift dividing Syria’s “three mini-states” in nearly five years and comes after an Israeli warning to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has seized the opportunity afforded by Iran and Hezbollah’s focus on Israel’s attack on Lebanon, as well as the shift of the best elements of the Syrian army to its border with Lebanon. That chimes with how it has intervened in support of Libya’s Tripoli-based government and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Syrian forces in Aleppo were largely untrained conscripts and when HTS attacked, their resistance rapidly collapsed.

Turkey’s foreign ministry said operation “Countering Aggression” was in response to a series of recent Syrian government attacks on Idlib, the capital of HTS’s mini state, in violation of agreements to de-escalate the conflict. Ankara has provided military and intelligence support to HTS, while Turkish soldiers, military outposts, and infrastructure are firmly embedded in the region.

Erdogan may also be looking to surround the SDF controlled area.

Back in 2016, Erdogan made a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whereby Syrian government forces re-occupied eastern Aleppo in exchange for Turkey invading and taking over an autonomous Kurdish entity in northern Syria. 

Breaking that agreement has enraged Putin. Moscow condemned the HTS seizure of Aleppo, calling it “a violation of Syria’s sovereignty,” and reiterating its support for the Syrian government’s efforts to restore order in the region. This was quickly followed by Russian air strikes on HTS positions.

Iran is now sending large scale ground forces into Syria to assist the attempts to retake Aleppo.

The scale of Turkish, Russian and Iranian forces on the ground means the conflict could easily escalate.

Omer Ozkizilcik, an associate researcher in Ankara, told think-tank Atlantic Council that Turkey has a “complex and difficult relationship” with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the jihadist alliance that led last week’s rebel offensive. “We can clearly say there was indirect Turkish support (for the offensive) but no direct Turkish involvement.”

Gönül Tol, a director at the Middle East Institute in Washington and author of a book on Turkey’s role in the Syrian war, told the Financial Times that “without Turkey’s green light, this operation would never be possible.” 

Charles Lister, an expert at Washington’s Middle East Institute reported that “the Aleppo offensive was initially planned for mid-October but Turkey put a stop to it”.

Ankara gave the green light only after Erdogan’s efforts to persuade Assad to include the opposition in his government were rejected. The rejection came because Turkey refused to withdraw its troops from inside Syria.

The interesting question is just how involved Israel is in all this. 

Earlier this month, Israel carried out airstrikes on Idlib for the first time, targeting Iranian and Hezbollah positions. 

The last Israeli attacks in Lebanon – before the truce with Hezbollah came into effect – were on the crossings from Lebanon into Syria. These attacks were carried out to prevent Hezbollah from sending reinforcements there.

The suspicion is that Turkey and HTS were aware of these Israeli operations. Erdogan has been strong in his rhetoric attacking Israel over Gaza but he has not cut the oil supplies which flow through Turkey to Israel.

Another factor is that Turkey and the HTS seem keen to attack areas run by the SDF. The Kurdish forces are allied with the Americans, but Ankara is aware that last time Donald Trump was in the White House he pulled US support for them.

On Sunday seized Tal Rifaat, a town north of Aleppo and the surrounding villages, where some 200,000 Syrian Kurds were living.

One significant shift is that Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt have switched positions and have made their peace with Assad. They all denounced the HTS attack on Aleppo.

So, this has all the potential to boil over into a wider conflict and in many ways it is a continuation of Israel’s war on Hezbollah. Turkey feels emboldened: while the cat’s away the mice will play. US attention is focused on Ukraine and elsewhere, giving Erdogan a chance to assert his regional ambitions.