Lindsey German on the fog of war and the UK housing crisis

The Ukraine war came home to Russia in the most spectacular way at the weekend. Yevgeny Prigohzin’s attempted coup was suddenly abandoned after 24 hours, but not before the Wagner commander and his troops had taken over military headquarters in the key city of Rostov on Don, had shot down a number of military helicopters, and advanced several hundred kilometres towards Moscow. Despite the coup ending and Prigozhin himself going into exile in Belarus, the episode must have weakened Vladimir Putin, whose invasion of Ukraine 18 months ago was not the speedy victory that he hoped, and when it is clear that there is opposition to the war, even though it is extremely difficult to express publicly in a repressive state.

What was behind the coup? The conflict between Wagner and the Russian military command is not new, has been grumbling on for months and was coming to a head as Wagner was going to be absorbed into the regular army. But the attempt to remove the defence minister and head of the army was symptomatic of wider discontents, not least the many complaints about corruption and inefficiency, and disagreements about how to prosecute the war. It is impossible to know how much these actions reflect a wider discontent but there was obviously some support for them in Rostov.

The whole situation also highlights the levels of gangsterism in Putin’s Russia and the dangerous consequences of a war which has dragged on with very high casualties. There was probably little chance of Putin being overthrown but there was the prospect of civil war in a nuclear armed state. This alone should set alarm bells ringing. The attitude of some like Keir Giles from Chatham House is that:

‘Prigozhin’s challenge to Moscow was a confrontation between a psychopath leading a gang of murderous criminals and a mafia boss sitting in the Kremlin and dividing Russia’s riches between his cronies. But a distracted, weakened Russia is good news for everybody else.’

The description may fit: Putin is a brutal imperialist who launched the war for his own interests, and who ludicrously compared the Wagner advance to the 1917 revolution, which he abhors. Prigozhin had no problems with the war, but with the way it was being conducted and with his own treatment.  But the consequences of a potential clash between rivals in Russia was regarded much more warily by heads of government, including in the US. The acquisition of nuclear warheads by the major nuclear powers is growing. According to recent research:

‘The great majority [of nuclear warheads] are held by Russia (4,489 warheads) and the United States (3,708), followed by three middle-ranking states: China (410), France (290) and the UK (225).’

These are also, uncoincidentally, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.

The latest crisis for Putin is the consequence of his illegal invasion of Ukraine, but the war itself is destabilising Russia and elsewhere in the region. Every recent war has resulted in a failed state. It’s true of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. The implications of Russia joining this list, of Putin using his nuclear warheads, or of them falling into even more dangerous hands, are truly terrifying.

That’s why the priority for all on the left should be calling for peace in Ukraine, not a continuation of the war. The Ukrainian armed forces will try to take advantage of the weaknesses exposed by the weekend’s events in Russia but the reality remains that the counter offensive is going very slowly and is facing extensive Russian defences. Had the coup developed and civil war broken out in Russia, that would have altered the balance of forces in the war. It is less likely to be the case now. So we are likely to be looking a drawn-out fighting involving heavy casualties on both sides. Indeed, Putin’s weakness vis a vis the coup is likely to make him intensify the war rather than draw the opposite conclusion.

The stakes are getting ever higher in this war. It is a clash between a crisis ridden but nonetheless imperialist Russia, and an increasingly belligerent Nato dominated by the western imperialist powers which is waging a proxy war. The danger of instability and worsening war is very great. It is in the interests of both Ukrainian and Russian workers that it ends.

The crazy cost of housing

Mortgage costs are shooting up as a result of deliberate government policy whereby the Bank of England is putting up interest rates every month. Those on fixed term mortgages are due for a nasty headache when their deals end, and they see huge rises in their monthly payments. Many, especially younger people, will lose their homes. Others will struggle to pay the increase. Those who can’t afford mortgages at all are also seeing their rents rise, often to help pay off their landlords’ mortgages.

Few have a good word to say for the landlords, who are as one friend said to me ‘just greedy’. But let’s not only blame them. This is a system built on greed where council house sales have been subsidised and encouraged, where buy to let mortgages have been given favourable terms, where stamp duty ‘holidays’ have been used to overheat the housing market and raise prices. Those suffering, as ever, tend to be working class people who struggled to find the original rents and mortgage payments in the first place.

Huge blocks of flats are going up across London and other major cities, but they are unaffordable to many. There is a shortage of housing which is driving workers out of the cities and into longer and costlier commutes. New build housing is often detached houses in villages and small towns, which does not necessarily match what such people need.

There is a housing shortage – or at least a shortage of housing that anyone can pay for. It is an emergency but this government is incapable of dealing with it, even though many Tory supporters are also being hit. Yet the solution should be simple: rent controls, secure tenancies and huge public investment in housing. This includes the building of new council houses, but also the repossession of many houses and flats that stand empty as ‘investments’. That will be opposed by the Tories and Labour because it will damage the ‘housing market’. But the market is completely broken and cannot deliver. Housing is a basic right and it has been turned into a commodity. That’s the problem.

This week: I will be going to the first day of the St Mungo’s workers’ indefinite strike – they’re calling it a carnival of resistance. Tuesday 12 noon, Thomas More Square, E1W 1YW (near Tower Hill). They need all our solidarity. I’m reading a novel by Vasily Grossman, new in translation and paperback. Grossman was born in Ukraine to a Jewish family and his mother was killed there by the Nazis. He was an outstanding war correspondent and novelist and I’m interested to see how this one turns out, set in the months after Hitler invades. There’s also loads of really interesting notes and documents.