Reform’s rise cannot be combated in the same way the Nazi NF or BNP were defeated, but requires a left response to the failure of the neoliberal centre, argues Chris Bambery

Opinion polls are now consistently showing Reform UK ahead or on par with Labour. That is also borne out by its success in winning a number of council by-elections since the start of the year. These have been taken from Labour, the Tories and Liberal Democrats. However, the crucial feature is a historic collapse in Labour support after just seven months in power. Polling expert John Curtice notes that, ‘the fall in Labour’s vote of this size so quickly is, I think, a record.’

The principle reason is the widespread anguish over living standards caused by Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, not least over pensioner’s winter heating allowance. Reform took 7% of the vote in Scotland at July’s general election, overtaking the Conservatives in 25 seats, despite virtually no campaigning or party infrastructure north of the border.

In November, a number of council byelections in Aberdeenshire and Glasgow, saw Reform gain between 12% and 25% of first preferences, while recent polling has put the party beyond 10%, which, in the Scottish Parliamentary election would translate into twelve seats.

Polls in Wales suggest they could win fourteen to seventeen seats in the 2026 Senedd election. Reform UK won its first council seat in Wales taking the Trevethin and Penygarn ward Council on Torfaen Council from Labour. Labour’s vote collapsed, falling from 49.2% to just 26.6%.

Other gains from Labour this month include the Broadwaters ward on Kidderminster Council and two seats on Medway council in Kent, Rochester East and Warren Wood. Reform UK won the Stowe ward of Lichfield Council previously held by the Liberal Democrats, with Labour in second place and the Tories fourth. They also took Bentleys and Frating ward on Tendring District Council from the Tories, the borough which includes Clacton, the Essex parliamentary seat won by Nigel Farage in July.

In the July 2024 Westminster election, Reform UK won five seats, all from the Tories but they also came second in 98 constituencies. In 89 of these cases, it was second to Labour. Sixty of these were in the north of England and thirteen were in Wales.

A YouGov poll taken in January found that the biggest reason why people choose to support Reform UK is dissatisfaction with the main parties: ‘Reform UK’s distinct identity compared to the established parties is key to its appeal, with 19% of Reform UK considerers saying that the most attractive aspect of the party is the fact they are neither Labour nor the Conservatives, or that they are better than the rest. An additional 9% of considerers gave more individual criticisms of Labour (5%) or the Conservatives (4%) for what has pushed them towards Reform UK.

‘Their broader difference also has appeal, with 11% of considerers saying the thing that has pulled them most towards the party is the fact that Reform is different and represents a new approach.’ Stopping immigration is the reason 18% of people give.

How we stop Reform

This raises an important issue. We desperately need to mobilise to stop the rise of Reform UK, which is a far-right party. But to do so, we cannot simply use the template of how we did so in opposition to the National Front in the 1970s or the British National Party in the 1990s. These were Nazi organisations and we could produce photos of leaders like John Tyndall in Nazi uniform and plenty of obnoxious quotes to prove the point. Nigel Farage in an extremely unpleasant politician but he is not, and never has been, a Nazi.

Decisive to stopping the Nazis back then was physically blocking them, as at Lewisham in 1977 and Welling in 1993. Then we rightly argued for No Platform for fascists and open racists. That does not apply in a situation where ‘stopping the boats’ is a crucial factor in Reform UK’s support, the bigger one is dislike of the establishment parties. I realise that the idea Farage is an ‘outsider’ to Britain’s elite is farcical – as in the case of Donald Trump and Ellon Musk – but hatred of the centre-right and centre-left neoliberal consensus is the major driver here.

What we are going to have to do is challenge Reform UK on the doorstep, in the shopping centres, at college and at work since they too want to cut public spending. Thus, they supported Starmer and Reeves in refusing to compensate the Waspi women. We need to explain that migrants built the NHS and sustain it every day. Asking ‘who was the midwife who delivered your child’ or ‘who is it looking after your parent in a care home?’

But we also need to address the collapse in Labour’s support. Writing in The Telegraph, John Curtice looks at where Labour’s votes are going: ‘Whereas few 2019 Labour voters switched to Reform in July, the polls suggest some 7 to 8 per cent of those who voted for the party in July are now backing Reform.

‘However, the threat to Labour ‘s fortunes does not simply come from Reform. Rather, the party’s support is being scattered to the four winds. 8 per cent of those who voted Labour in July are now supporting the Liberal Democrats, 5 per cent the Greens, and 4 per cent the Conservatives. Meanwhile, in a pattern that was evident among former Conservative supporters in the run up to the general election, Labour supporters are also more likely to say they do not know how they would vote in another election.’ While the headlines focus on Reform UK, the Greens’ support sits at 8%, up a point on the general election, while in Scotland, the SNP are back in poll position.

Back in July, independent candidates, including Jeremy Corbyn, won five seats, standing in support of Palestine but also on a wider anti-capitalist programme. Others polled strong votes. The evidence above suggests while Labour voters are looking around as to where they place their vote, many would look left, if there was a left alternative.

Reform UK came second to Labour last July in areas where working-class organisation was once strong: South Yorkshire and South Wales for example. The left badly needs to rebuild into these areas.

We cannot suck a left electoral alternative from our thumb but we can begin to build on our successes of last July. There is an urgency to that.