As Canada’s Liberal Party crumbles, the possibility of a hard-right Conservative government looms, unless a left alternative to the failing centre is found, argues John Clark

The Liberal Party of Canada has been in power since 2015 with Justin Trudeau’s hand on the tiller. Though he brought to the role of prime minister an ill-deserved progressive image and rode an initial wave of popularity, those days are now long gone. The passage of nine years has greatly diminished Trudeau’s credibility. It seems likely that the Liberals, currently functioning without a parliamentary majority, have simply exhausted their political shelf life.

Last month, a by-election was held for what had appeared to be a very safe Liberal seat and the result was disastrous. Toronto’s inner city has long been hostile territory for the Tories and the federal riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s had been held by Carolyn Bennett, a prominent member of Trudeau’s cabinet, for more than twenty-five years. Nonetheless, the Tories took the seat in a major political upset that is very clear writing on the wall for the Liberal government.

The Conservative candidate, Don Stewart, won 42.1% of the vote while Bennett’s hopeful replacement was edged out with 40.5%. Global News noted that losing ‘the historic stronghold is likely to pile pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’ and Tory leader, Pierre Poilievre, was more than ready to add to that pressure. Though a federal election won’t be obligatory until October of next year, he responded to the result in Toronto-St. Paul’s with a demand that the Liberals should call one immediately.

Liberals collapsing

It is undeniable that Trudeau is discredited and unpopular and the opinion polls make this very clear. In an Ipsos poll, some 68% of respondents thought he should step down and he is far less popular than his Tory rival. However, it would be rash to assume that throwing Trudeau overboard would save the Liberal ship. A Global poll puts Conservative support at 42%, with the Liberals trailing at a catastrophic 24%. Ipsos CEO, Darrell Bricker, pointed out, what’s ‘worse is that [the Liberals] have thrown everything they can think of at changing this dynamic. Nothing has worked. It’s frozen in solid.’

Nonetheless, it is hardly surprising that the Toronto-St. Paul’s debacle has intensified discontent within Liberal ranks and fuelled public speculation about a change of leaders. Trudeau has admitted that ‘… last week’s byelection loss, not to sugarcoat it, was challenging, was something that we need to take seriously … We’ve been engaged in lots of important conversations.’

At this point, Trudeau is still gamely insisting that ‘I will continue to engage and to talk and to listen, to meet with all my MPs from across the country to talk about how we can both understand what we need to improve on …’ It remains to be seen, however, how long he can hold off those in his own ranks who think that this ‘need to improve’ involves putting someone else in the prime minister’s office.

Trudeau also acknowledged that ‘Canadians are facing challenging times right now’ and, in doing so, he unintentionally put his finger on an important truth. The harsh but obvious reality is that, for nearly a decade, Trudeau-led governments have presided over a situation marked by a greatly weakened social infrastructure, a worsening housing crisis and declining working-class living standards. It has also been a period marked by volatility and uncertainty, and the Liberal’s upbeat messaging and much-proclaimed progressive values simply have lost their ability to do anything more than annoy people.

In the early part of Trudeau’s time as prime minister, he took to using the term ‘sunny ways’ to describe his approach to governing, which he took from a speech delivered by Liberal leader Wilfred Laurier in 1895. It is an expression that rings hollow today and the Liberal breath of fresh air has long grown very stale.

It would be wrong, however, to focus entirely on the diminished effectiveness of Trudeau’s photogenic antics or even the particular shortcomings of his government. The Liberals face a challenge from a Conservative Party that has been firmly brought under the leadership of hard-right populism. Tory leader Pierre Poilievre decisively defeated the more respectable and moderate wing of his party. His political style evokes comparisons to Donald Trump and he certainly is ready to play to a political base that is thoroughly caught up in a dangerous mood of reactionary rage.

Very clearly, this inability of the Liberals to fend off the forces of the political right is very far from a unique situation on the international stage. The parties of the political centre are showing the same serious weakness in a range of settings. In France, the wretched and reactionary conduct of Macron opened the door for Le Pen and the far right. During the recent election, a left alternative proved to be a considerably more effective counter to the surging right than the hope that people would hold their noses and vote for a discredited lesser evil.

The case of the Biden administration in the US is every bit as stark as the situation in France. Though Biden squeaked in during the last presidential election, he is now in major trouble, as a rematch with Donald Trump looms. It may not be helpful that the president is obviously in a state of cognitive decline but, even if this were not so, the ability of ‘Genocide Joe’ to pose as a progressive alternative is severely limited. Even the very real threat posed by the deeply reactionary and authoritarian Trump isn’t mobilising enough reluctant tactical support behind the discredited Biden.

In the UK, a different situation exists, but it contains many of the same elements. The hated Tories have been removed and Labour is in government, albeit with an astoundingly low share of the vote. However, there is no doubt that Reform and the forces of the right have considerable momentum and the inevitable betrayals of Starmer and his cohorts will only add to this. It is easy to imagine a situation significantly comparable to the one that has just played out in France emerging in the UK in the coming period. Indeed, Farage himself has bluntly asserted that ‘we’re coming for Labour – be in no doubt about that.’

Left alternative

If the Trudeau Liberals are the textbook case of a government of the political centre that is unable to defeat a challenge from the right, the present situation in Canada is a challenging one with regard to a viable left alternative. On the electoral front, the social-democratic NDP has been reduced to propping up the Liberals, with a ‘confidence-and-supply agreement’ that provides them with the parliamentary votes they need to continue to govern.

The right-wing National Post ran an article this month that spoke to the NDP’s diminished ability to offer an inspiring alternative. It tells us that just ‘four out of 10 Canadians think the deal between the Liberals and the NDP to keep the Trudeau government in power has been a good thing, with even 40 per cent of New Democrats unconvinced of the value of the agreement, a new poll suggests.’ With such a widespread sentiment within the NDP’s base of support, it is unlikely that the party can serve as a rallying point for dynamic opposition to the threat of Poilievre’s Tories.

Given that a federal election must take place within little more than a year, it is also unlikely that a strong left electoral alternative will emerge in time to intervene effectively in it. Already reduced to a parliamentary minority and suffering from a very serious loss of legitimacy, it appears doubtful that the Liberals, with or without Trudeau, can hold off the Tories. It is by no means inevitable, but it is a distinct possibility that we shall be dealing with the most right-wing government in Canadian history.

The vital task of forging an alternative on the left, however, can’t be properly addressed if it is simply viewed as an electoral issue. The bankruptcy of the political centre lies in the fact that it upholds a discredited status quo. The rise of the right is attributable to its ability to offer hateful and distorted ‘solutions’ that challenge the present state of affairs. A left opposition must be rooted in union and community struggles that pose meaningful solutions that meet working-class needs. This can find an electoral expression but it must grow out of movements fighting for change.