The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will not bring peace to the region or stop the genocide in Gaza, argues Michael Lavalette

For the first time in just over two months, the skies above Beirut are silent today. The drones have gone and the imminent threat of rockets launched from Israeli planes has been halted, at least for the time being.

On Tuesday evening (26 November) Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden announced a ceasefire in Lebanon. The cessation of hostilities will be for sixty days initially. Typical of the Israeli regime, between announcement of the ceasefire and its implementation four hours later, they launched a brutal attack on Beirut, with the city suffering some of the worst bombing of the conflict.

The ceasefire agreement will see Israeli bombing stop and their troops retreat back to Israel. Hezbollah will move their active service units north of the Litani river and the Lebanese army, and Unifil (the UN Force in Lebanon) will manage security in the twenty-kilometre zone between the Litani and the border. In effect, this takes us back to the situation that has been in place in the Lebanese border region for the last twenty years.

Biden has tried to claim this as a victory for US diplomacy. What a hypocrite! This invasion, like that in Gaza, was only possible because it was ‘bought and paid for’ in Washington. Further, it’s clear that some within the US state saw this as an opportunity to inflict a significant defeat on Iran, via their perceived proxy Hezbollah. Biden’s weasel words won’t remove the stains that mark him as a genocide enabler of the first order.

The conflict started with an act of Israeli state terrorism. Israeli agents infiltrated Hezbollah supply lines inserting explosives into pagers and walkie-talkies. They then blew them up in an indiscriminate attack killing and injuring men, women and children, many with no connection to Hezbollah. This was followed up by targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders.

Israel confidently announced the ‘significant degradation’ of Hezbollah, and started their bombing campaign and ground invasion to ‘finish them off’. For many inside the Israeli state, this was an opportunity to colonise southern Lebanon up to the Litani. Some settler organisations even posited new Israeli settlements inside Lebanon.

But it’s clear that the invasion has not gone as well as the Israelis expected. Their bombing campaign has killed thousands as part of an attempt to degrade Lebanon and drive a wedge between the Lebanese people and Hezbollah. This hasn’t happened. Across Lebanon, communities have pulled together and see the attack and invasion for what it is: an attempt by Israel to assert its regional power and expand its borders.

Balance of forces

The ground invasion has met fierce resistance. Significant numbers of Israeli troops have been killed and injured. There have been some reports of sections of the Israeli armed forces refusing to return to their units to fight after periods of leave. The attempts to forcibly remove Unifil forces from southern Lebanon were unsuccessful and brought global condemnation, especially from those countries whose troops came under Israeli fire.

The claim that this was a targeted attack on Hezbollah crumbled in the face of the evidence from southern Lebanon. The Israelis have destroyed 39 villages south of the Litani, but many of them are Christian villages, with no obvious link with Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has proven remarkably resilient. There is no doubt the pager attack and the targeted assassinations struck a blow at the organisation, but they have reorganised remarkably quickly. The battle-hardened Hezbollah troops have proven to be a very significant obstacle to Israeli designs.

As the Israeli air assault continued, Hezbollah responded with rocket attacks deep into Israel. Both Tel Aviv and Haifa have come under regular attack with the ‘Iron Dome’ failing to stop significant numbers of rockets landing. This is the first time Israel has been subject to a sustained campaign in this way.

Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and Gaza are signed off in Washington, but they are increasingly causing difficulties for the Western powers both ‘at home’ (with each country’s domestic politics increasingly shaped by the dynamic pro-Palestinian movement) and ‘globally’ (as Western claims of a ‘rule-based order’ are exposed as ‘rules for everyone except us and our allies’). The arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant and the growing demands for a ceasefire in Gaza have been part of the jigsaw that has pushed the US to act over Lebanon. And all are indicative of growing Israeli isolation; globally they are increasingly viewed as a pariah state.

The ceasefire also deepens conflicts inside the Israeli cabinet. The Israeli state faces mounting criticism at home over the conduct of the war and genocide, the implications of the ICC arrest warrants, the hostage issue, the growing strength of the settler movement and the long-term stability in the region. The attempt to ban state officers from reading and engaging with the liberal-left newspaper Ha’aretz (similar to the Guardian!) is indicative of a growing bunker mentality at the top of Israeli society. The increasingly unstable Israeli government is now further divided as the far-right ministers oppose the deal, and this may well threaten the long-term viability of the Netanyahu government.

Finally, it is important to note that the ceasefire in Lebanon leaves Gaza isolated. In October 2023, Hezbollah started launching rockets into northern Israel as a conscious attempt to draw fire from Israel’s atrocities in Gaza. But by entering into the ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah will stop operations at the north of Israel. Sources close to Hamas report their disappointment with Hezbollah’s decision. The ceasefire in Lebanon will allow Israel to concentrate on the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. It also marks a significant change of orientation from Hezbollah and a retreat from the idea that they were the northern front in the struggle for Palestinian liberation. The change of direction here is perhaps indicative of the fact that the ‘axis of resistance’ is less cohesive and less unified than some Western commentators suggest.

For Gazans, there are no immediate prospects of peace as the horror they suffer continues apace. For those of us in Britain, this means we must keep up the pressure on our government over their collusion with genocide. This Saturday’s 22nd national demonstration for Gaza offers us the latest opportunity to demand an end to the genocide and to the arming of the Israeli regime. Let’s take to the streets to keep the pressure on Netanyahu, Biden and their lackeys in Westminster – Starmer and Lammy.