Lindsey German on centrism in crisis, a recomposing Middle East and spycops

A supposedly rogue poll last week put Labour in third place after the Tories and Reform UK. A remarkable and disturbing outcome with a government less that 6 months old, but not so surprising to those of us observing just how dire Keir Starmer is. For his supporters however you can practically taste the panic as they suddenly realise that their hero and scourge of the left is likely to face a drubbing at the hands of the far right.

That is already happening in local council by elections, where Labour’s vote is falling, often to Reform from its right but also to the Greens and independents to its left. In the election last July, Reform took votes from the Tories but also from Labour and that the party came second in many areas regarded as safe Labour – the constituencies in most of Manchester and Liverpool, south Wales and much of the north and north east of England.

Keir Starmer put no effort into countering the racist and bigoted politics of Reform partly because he thought they would harm the Tories more than him, partly because he has espoused his own bigoted politics over migration and nationalism. Now it is presenting a major challenge to his failing government.

This is a dangerous development but not one that is inevitable or that can’t be challenged. We should recognise that Reform doesn’t put its full programme forward when it’s trying to win electoral success. It plays on fear of immigration for sure, but it also highlights the loss of the winter fuel allowance for pensioners. It doesn’t say that it hates all Muslims but rather that Britain isn’t like it used to be or makes the false claim that Xmas trees aren’t allowed in primary schools ‘because of the Muslims.’

So it plays on people’s irrational fears and false information in order to build a base. In a society where most working-class people feel worse off and deeply insecure that is easy to do. Part of the reason that Reform UK has done well is also the deliberate destruction of Labour’s left through the defeat of Corbynism, and the consequent abandonment of virtually any policy that would challenge capital in even the smallest way. The only significant unified electoral force in England to its left is the Green Party, which has failed to seriously campaign over issues such as war and Palestine and has a weak appeal to working class people.

Reform UK’s rise is in step with events internationally, most obviously with the election of Donald Trump as US president. While that has given a boost to the far right everywhere, we should see this as less a radical increase in support for him, and more a sense of despair as the US working class heartlands refused any longer to give their votes to the Democrats. This is essentially the same pattern that lost Labour the ‘red wall’ in 2019 and is part of the long-term decline of social democracy internationally.

Starmer’s woodenness and lack of empathy, as well as his arrogance are not just personal traits, but have their roots in politics. He sees his role as managing the crisis for the British capitalist class and refuses to countenance anyone or anything that challenges his management, let alone challenges those in the capitalist class to whom he defers. So despite the fact that left policies such as nationalisation or control of landlords are popular, they are at best low on Labour’s agenda.

The failure of the centre parties is helping fuel the far right. We see this most clearly in France where president Macron has witnessed the fall of his appointed government which was trying to force through an austerity budget. The no confidence motion was moved by the left NFP but was backed by the fascist Marine le Pen’s RN, which has spent months manoeuvring to gain advantage out of Macron’s weakness.

So we are in a potentially dangerous situation. But at the same time we should not see the rise of Reform UK as inevitable. It depends very much on what the left does. Whatever the faults of the main far left party in France, La France Insoumise, it has stood up to both Macron and Le Pen and fought its corner. It is also the main political force fighting racism and Islamophobia in France. Additionally, the government’s fall also coincided with big strikes last week, bringing challenges to austerity and inequality.

We don’t have a left electoral party here, although we have five independent MPs who won in July on pro Gaza and anti-austerity platforms. The potential to build such a party is there, and there are moves towards it, but it so far remains a talking point rather than anything more. The danger here is that too many of the left stay in their comfort zone, bemoaning the defeat of Corbynism and proclaiming that there needs to be a left alternative to Labour, rather than doing anything about the many crises facing the working class in Britain.

New parties crystallise out of the actions of the past. A new left will be built and is being built out the struggles over Gaza. It must also be built out of struggles over housing, the pensioners’ fuel allowance, poverty wages, clean water, energy prices, and the NHS. Engaging with those struggles, and strengthening and deepening them, is the best way to combat the false promises of Reform. It is also the way to defeat Starmer and his right-wing agenda. The two go hand in hand.

Genocide and war crimes: say nothing

Amnesty International could not have been stronger in its report about Israel’s genocidal role in Gaza:

Amnesty International has found sufficient basis to conclude that Israel committed, between 7 October 2023 and July 2024, prohibited acts under the Genocide Convention, namely killing, causing serious bodily or mental harm and deliberately inflicting on Palestinians in Gaza conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction in whole or in part. Amnesty International has also concluded that these acts were committed with the specific intent to destroy Palestinians in Gaza, as such, who form a substantial part of the Palestinian population, which constitutes a group protected under the Genocide Convention.

It puts several demands on the British government urging it and other states to take action against Israel, including arms embargo and to stop the genocide – one of the major slogans of the Palestine movement for months now.

Embarrassing for government and media in this country which is why it has received so little discussion or debate. It is a scandal of great proportions that Starmer and Lammy – and their counterparts who arm Israel – are so silent on this and other atrocities.

This report is very detailed and compelling – it deserves the widest readership and support. And – just like the ICC arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant – it will play a major role in delegitimising not just Israel, but also the British government, in the eyes of millions of people. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is continuing to act with impunity not just against the Palestinians but with the bombing of its enemies across the Middle East.

The momentous events in Syria, with the fall of Assad, are clearly connected to the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has continued to bomb Syria and will take sides in what may become a new civil war. Millions of Syrians welcome Assad’s demise and are hoping for peace and democracy now, but they will not be helped by those waging war on the Palestinians. In fact the opposite.

Police spies and lies

While all the news was focused on Gregg Wallace, sexual harasser and predator Bob Lambert has been getting off quite lightly. Lambert was one of the key figures in undercover policing for the Metropolitan Police for decades. He was one of the undercover officers who had affairs with the women they were spying on, and he was one of those who fathered children with women activists. He has been giving evidence at the Undercover Policing Inquiry, in which I’m a core participant.

I can’t think of much more horrific than thinking that you are in a loving relationship with the father of your child to then find out it is a complete lie. The women who have been through this, as well as the ones who unwittingly had affairs with him and the other great deceivers, are incredibly strong and courageous in bringing the evidence of this to light. They deserve all our support. Lambert went on to be a Metropolitan Police liaison for the Muslim community in the early 2000s after he stopped his undercover work. Another group of people who found they couldn’t trust him.

If you want to follow what’s going on there, you won’t get much from the mainstream media, so try here.

This week: I will be going to the Stop the War online fundraising auction on Thursday, to Manchester for a book launch with Jeremy Corbyn on Saturday, and to the big Palestine fundraiser organised by Paul Weller on Friday night. And Saturday is a day of action for Palestine, including a rally in London at Parliament Square.