As Israel’s war threatens to escalate, and US belligerence against China continues, a multi-polar world is becoming perilously unstable, argues Chris Bambery

Once, we were told we lived in a unipolar world where the United States was the only global power. Today those times are long gone. For instance, military and economic ties between Russia and China have strengthened since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed relations with China, saying they were ‘at their best period in history’, during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Kazakh capital of Astana. Xi called Putin his ‘old friend’ and said Sino-Russian relations were at a ‘high level’: ‘In the face of the turbulent international situation and external environment, the two sides should continue to uphold the original aspiration of friendship for generations to come.’ They were attending a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a security and defence alliance seen by Moscow and Beijing as a counter to Nato. Alongside Russia and China, four Central Asian states, India, Iran and Pakistan are members of the SCO.

Putin hailed the SCO as ‘strengthening its role as one of the key pillars of a fair multipolar world order.’ In a joint declaration, the group noted ‘tectonic shifts in global politics’ and called for the bloc to play an enhanced role in global and regional security: ‘The use of force is increasing, the norms of international law are systemically being violated, geopolitical confrontation and conflicts are growing, and risks to stability in the world and the SCO region are multiplying.’ 

Putin also met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan separately from the SCO meeting. Erdogan told Putin that Turkey could help establish a basis to end the Ukraine-Russia war; he added that a fair peace suiting the two sides was possible. Putin and Erdogan also discussed the ongoing war in Gaza, as well as ways to end the conflict in Syria.

The Western mainstream media is dismissive of the Sino-Russo axis calling it overhyped. It’s true there is a disparity between the economic and military power of China compared to Russia, but the two states have much in common. Russia can provide China with energy and food, both of which it needs to import. Russia also provides rail routes westwards at a time when the US and its allies threaten control of the choke points in its flagship Belt and Road infrastructure project, where Chinese merchant vessels exit the South China Sea into the Pacific.

The West believed that its sanctions programme and the costs of the war in Ukraine would beggar the Russian economy. However, the World Bank reported last week that Russian trade was up by 6.8%, the financial sector had grown by 8.7%, and the construction industry by 6.6%. These factors led to increases in both real (3.6%) and nominal (10.9%) GDP. Accordingly, the World Bank promoted it from being an upper-middle income economy into its top category, as a high-income economy.

Missiles and threats

What also drives Sino-Russo co-operation is a shared fear of US aggression against both states. Both of them fear being encircled by the US and its allies. Last week it was announced that a powerful midrange US missile system that Washington deployed to the Philippines will be returned to the United States in September, according to a Philippine military spokesman. The missile system was deployed to a northern Philippine province in April for a joint military exercise that ended in June. It was also used for a simulated firing drill during a bilateral exercise in the South China Sea in May.

Washington has given no reason as to why it is removing the missiles. It is possible someone, somewhere, grasped their presence would only provoke China further. From the northern Philippines, these missiles were in range of southern China. China repeatedly criticised the missile deployment. 

A treaty between the US and Russia that banned land-based ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500km to 5,500km as well as short- to intermediate-range missile launchers, expired in 2019.

In August 2019, President Donald Trump revoked the 1987 Treaty on Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles Between USA and USSR (INF Treaty). The broke new ground because it did not just limit future missiles but eliminated an entire category of nuclear weapons and introduced, for the first time, extensive verification and data exchange mechanisms, including on-site inspections.

The Russians responded with anger to this, seeing themselves being treated with derision by the Americans. The Americans then deployed these missiles in Europe in Poland plus Turkey as well as in Germany and the UK, and in Asia in South Korea, Guam and the Japanese island of Okinawa. Beijing called US plans to deploy intermediate-range ground-based missiles in the Indo-Pacific a ‘dangerous move’ and warned that it ‘will take countermeasures’.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on 28 June he was aware that the United States had deployed a missile system to both Denmark and the Philippines, and warned Russia would resume production of midrange missiles. Nato expansion has brought its troops and US missile defence systems into Eastern Europe. In the South China Sea, the US has repeatedly deployed warships and planes along with its regional allies and has entered with Britain into the Aukus pact, giving Australia nuclear submarines.

It is also the case that Russia and China view events in the Middle East with growing apprehension. It may seem crazy that the Israeli government seems set to launch a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while the Israeli Defence Force is unable to carry out Benjamin Netanyahu’s promise to annihilate Hamas. It is failing in its counter-insurgency mission, but continuing with its war of genocide against the Palestinian people. Nonetheless, a potential war with Hezbollah is hotting up by the day and the hour with Netanyahu ordering a build-up of reservists on the border.

Israel’s madness

This may seem ludicrously reckless, but then you need to look at the world through Israeli eyes. Since its creation, it has believed it must maintain deterrence, whereby any enemy must understand that Israel had overwhelming military superiority which it would use to punish any acts against it.

Israel now believes that the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’, involving Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and the Shi’a militias, threatens its very existence. Netanyahu, who is not particularly religious, is now echoing the religious language of his right-wing allies in government. In his 4 July address to the USA Netanyahu stated: ‘Character is revealed in times of crisis. In the face of Hamas’s savagery on October 7, the people of Israel connected to the deepest foundations of our national being. As one, we rose to fight our enemies with the heroism, determination, and resilience that characterized our heroes from the days of Joshua and the Maccabees, passed down across time to the warriors of the modern State of Israel.’

Moreover, Israel viewed President ‘Sleepy’ Joe Biden’s performance in his televised debate with Donald Trump with alarm. As columnist Amnon Lord put it in Israel Hayom: ‘In a world rife with aggressive forces, the unflattering image of an American president – the leader of the free world – appearing weak and incoherent encourages them to exploit opportunities.’ Israeli columnist Nadav Eyal added in Yediot Ahronot, ‘Weakness is not a trait that an American president can convey, by any means.’

On Monday, Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel will fight until it has achieved all of its objectives. He again listed those goals as eliminating Hamas, returning all the hostages, ensuring Gaza never again constitutes a threat to Israel, and restoring Israel’s displaced citizens safely to their homes near the Gaza and Lebanon borders. The latter means eliminating Hezbollah rocket and missile attacks from which those Israelis fled.

David M. Weinberg is a senior fellow at Misgav, the Israeli Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, and Habithonistim, Israel’s Defense and Security Forum. Last week he warned: ‘A cold, calculated analysis of Israel’s strategic situation will reach the conclusion that this country faces a decade of tough warfare on seven different fronts, mainly against Iran and its proxy armies. Enemy armies and militias are entrenched on Israel’s borders, with Iran actively arming and seeking to radicalize Palestinians in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank], and Jordan, too.’

Added to this list of enemies are the Houthis in Yemen, the Shi’a militias in Iraq and Syria, through which Iranian arms go to Hezbollah and where Iranian Revolutionary Guards are stationed. Israel has carried out numerous air and missile attacks inside Syria since 7 October.

The degree of unanimity about this in Israel is staggering. Opposition leader, Benny Gantz, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff who left his country’s war Cabinet last month, was blunt during a security conference when addressing the ongoing conflict at the Israel-Lebanon border last week, stating: ‘We can bring Lebanon completely into the dark, and take apart Hezbollah’s power in days.’ 

That Israel was beaten by Hezbollah when it invaded Lebanon in 2006 is forgotten. Also ignored is that Hezbollah is far stronger than Hamas and has had months to prepare its underground defences, where some 150,000 rockets and missiles are targeted on Israel. If Israel cannot defeat Hamas could it defeat Hezbollah?

Dragging in the superpowers

The answer is that Netanyahu believes he can involve the USA in such a war. Logically, its hard to see Washington getting involved in this conflict, but given the fact that US foreign policy is in the hands of the Pentagon and the CIA, not Biden or Anthony Blinken, don’t rule it out.

Hezbollah is a crucial ally of Iran – ally not puppet – with Tehran seeing it as crucial not only in tying Israel down, but as a deterrent against Israel and the United States taking military action against Iran. An Israeli-Hezbollah war could well mean that US forces deployed in Iraq and Syria would be targeted. Last month, the Houthis fired a domestically developed hypersonic missile in an attack on a cargo ship in the Arabian Sea. The US aided by Britain has been unable to stop these attacks and Western warships would be obvious targets.

Where does this leave China and Russia? Iran is an ally of both and a member of SCO. That does not mean either state would intervene militarily, but they would look weak if they did not respond to any Israeli and/or American attack on Iran.

Russia has a military presence in Syria with a warm-water Russian naval base in Tartus. On 13 June, it set up three military bases in Syria; at Al-Izaah base, six kilometres west of Kobani, in Ain Al-Arab east of Aleppo and in Bir Hasso village on the vicinity of Qarqarzaq Bridge. If Israel targets Syria as part of its war on Hezbollah, Russia could well be drawn in.

Putin and Russia have their own imperialist interests, and by and large these are regional, as in the case of Ukraine. But it also operates out of region in Syria and in Africa. Last week, Russia deployed 1,800 fighters to eastern Libya in what one reports says, ‘it hopes will become a base of power to exert influence in other parts of the continent.’ This was a mix of regular Russian soldiers and mercenaries with Russia’s Africa Corps, formerly known as the Wagner Group.

This came after a group of Russian ships delivered thousands of tons of weapons and military equipment to the eastern port of Tobruk in April. This followed meetings between Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov, the Wagner Group’s new boss General Andrei Averyanov, and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the eastern-based Libyan National Army.

Before the new arrival of Russian fighters, it was estimated that Wagner had about 2,000 fighters on the ground in Libya. It became involved in Libya in 2018, supporting Haftar in the civil war that followed the toppling of dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. Wagner was paid with Libyan oil.

At no point since World War II has the United States seemed less in control of global events. It is watching as Ukraine is losing, but it, along with the UK, France and Germany, are authorising ballistic missile attacks on Russia. After civilians were killed by a US-provided missile on a beach in Sebastopol, the Russians promised they would retaliate against US targets in the region.

Washington seems to have lost any ability to rein in Israel which is acting like a wounded beast. Despite that US arms and finance keeps on flowing. It’s a mad and very dangerous world.