There are many signs that Trump’s administration, supported by Israel, is intent on war with Iran, but the military realities point to a very dangerous quagmire, argues Chris Bambery

The war drums are beating in Washington once again. This time, the drummer is the man who came to the office describing himself as the ‘President of Peace’, Donald Trump. The target: Iran.

Cheering Trump on all the way is the Israeli premier, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long wanted to involve Washington in a war with Iran. Trump and his team claim Iran is set on building a nuclear bomb, despite clear evidence it is not and despite the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, having issued a fatwah (a religious ban) on doing just that.

Trump told NBC News on Sunday: ‘If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.’ On the same day, the US State Department stated: ‘President Trump has been clear: the United States cannot allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.’ It added that ‘The president expressed his willingness to discuss a deal with Iran. If the Iranian regime does not want a deal, the president is clear: he will pursue other options, which will be very bad for Iran.’

The ‘deal’ means Tehran pledging it will never develop a nuclear weapon (that would involve constant inspections) and dropping support for Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the Iraqi Shi’a militias. Iran understands the US wants to reduce its sovereignty and is not going to accept this.

On Monday, US Department of State spokesperson, Tammy Bruce, told a press briefing: ‘Yes. Iran’s behavior across the globe threatens U.S. national interests, which is why President Trump reimposed the maximum pressure campaign designed to end Iran’s nuclear threat, curtail its ballistic missile program, and stop it from supporting terrorist groups. As the President has said, Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. He has also been very clear that the United States can’t allow that to occur. As we know, the President expressed his willingness to discuss a deal with Iran. If the Iranian regime does not want a deal, the President is clear he will pursue other options, which will be very bad for Iran.’

In fact, Iran has responded to Israeli assassinations in Iran and Lebanon and an attack on its diplomatic building in Damascus (technically Iranian) with caution. It is widely accepted that despite its strong support for the Palestinians, it does not want war with Israel, let alone the USA.

In the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, Iran has never attacked another country, it was attacked by Iraq in 1980, supported by the USA and Britain. In that eight-year-long war, the regime of Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons supplied by the West.

Threats and negotiations

Iran has formally declined to begin those direct negotiations with the country’s president. Masoud Pezeshkian said that a message was delivered to US negotiators through the Omani government. He said that the official response from Iran left open the possibility for continued indirect negotiations but added that the US must regain trust with Iran in order for formal diplomacy to resume. ‘We don’t avoid talks; it’s the breach of promises that has caused issues for us so far,’ Pezeshkian said at a televised Cabinet meeting. ‘They must prove that they can build trust.’

Trump’s threats to bomb Iran followed a statement from the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, who insisted last week that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon: ‘The IC [intelligence community] continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapon program that he suspended in 2003.’  In January, the outgoing head of the CIA, Bill Burns, gave an interview in which, when asked if Iran had reversed its position on ruling out building nuclear warheads, he answered: ‘We do not see any sign today that any such decision has been made, but we obviously watch it intently.’

That is not going to get in the way of the US making war. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has sent a second aircraft carrier strike group, led by USS Carl Vinson, to join the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group in the region. The USA has at least six nuclear-capable B-2 Spirit bombers at Camp Thunder Bay on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The planes can take 30,000-pound ‘bunker-buster’ bombs and are now situated within range of Iran.

Nearly every major U.S. military attack in the Middle East, dating back to Operation Desert Storm in 1991, began with bomber sorties launched from Diego Garcia. Diego Garcia is a British possession, and Britain leases the base there to the US.

One examination of what a US attack on Iran would involve pointed out: ‘any significant military action to eradicate Iran’s nuclear program, its terror infrastructure, or the regime would first require striking enemy airfields, command-and-control centers, and anti-aircraft batteries, all requiring a minimum of 1,400 sorties.’

How would Iran respond to such a thing? Amirali Hajizadeh, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) aerospace unit, said American troops in the region are ‘sitting in a glass house’. Furthermore, the ‘Americans have around ten military bases in the region – at least near Iran – and 50,000 troops,’ Hajizadeh told state TV on Monday. ‘It’s like they’re sitting in a glasshouse. And when you’re in a glass house, you don’t throw stones at others.’

The shape of a war

The US Council on Foreign Relations states that: ‘In total, the United States has military facilities across at least nineteen sites—eight of them considered to be permanent by many regional analysts—in countries including Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. The U.S. military also uses large bases in Djibouti and Turkey, which are part of other regional commands but often contribute significantly to U.S. operations in the Middle East. Qatar hosts U.S. Central Command’s forward headquarters. Bahrain hosts the most permanently assigned U.S. personnel and is home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet.’

Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base is home to the US’s 378th Air Expeditionary Wing, which operates F-16 and F-35 jet fighters. The US operates MQ-9 Reaper drones and jet fighters out of the UAE’s Al Dhafra Air Base. Kuwait’s Ali al-Salem Air Base is home to the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing. 

Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base hosts the regional headquarters for US Central Command. It has also hosted some Israeli military officials; Bahrain is home to around 9,000 US troops that belong to the headquarters of the US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Fifth Fleet. The Royal Navy also has a base in Bahrain.

Let’s just suppose that the US takes out Iran’s air defences and more. It is worth saying here that last October, after an initial Israeli air attack launched short of Iran’s border, the second, bigger, air attack was called because unknown air defences had been discovered, so that first supposition is not a given.

The next move would be to seek to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme and its ballistic missiles, and more. Iran has had years to prepare for this and all will be deep underground. The US plans to use bunker buster bombs.

These were used by Israel in Gaza. To what effect? An academic study of Israeli attacks on Hamas tunnels and bunkers during the current Gaza war concluded: ‘Israeli air raids have left massive destruction without causing serious damage to Palestinian combat infrastructure.’ Looking at the effect of US-provided bunker busters, it found: ‘these bombs are ineffective for tunnels deeper than 30 metres, and they only destroy part of the tunnel vertically without necessarily neutralizing the rest, especially tunnels with multiple entrances and branches.’¹ This is borne out by the simple fact of Hamas fighters emerging en masse during the truce in pristine uniforms with up-to-date weaponry.

The indications are that an attack on Iran would not be some lightning war, and the longer the US got bogged down in a protracted campaign, the more that could spin off into a regional war. In two Gulf Wars, the US has relied on its regional allies for air bases, supply ports and much more. A senior US official told Middle East Eye that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait have all told the US they will not permit their airspaces or territories to be used as a launchpad against Iran, including for refuelling and rescue operations. Iran has some 2000 ballistic missiles, which have penetrated Israel’s air defences. It has a modern air defence system supplied by Russia and has produced drones, stealth missiles and much more.

If the US is about to attack, a clear sign will be the withdrawal of its carrier strike force from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf into the Indian Ocean, because they would be extremely vulnerable to attack. The US would be fighting an air war from a considerable distance. Its B-2 aircraft can operate without refuelling, but that’s not the case with other warplanes. The Houthis and the Iraqi militias are likely to join in any retaliation against the US. A ballistic missile fired from Yemen, but not Iran, could hit Diego Garcia.

Foreign Policy concluded its assessment of a US attack on Iran by saying: ‘While tactically feasible, a full-scale aerial offensive against Iran’s nuclear program may undermine U.S. national security priorities in the long run. It would require sustained force posture, continuous military operations, and resource commitments. This ongoing engagement would detract from other U.S. priorities, particularly the strategic focus on countering China’s rise and influence. This diversion of military and intelligence assets to the Middle East would strain U.S. capabilities elsewhere, weakening deterrence against other global adversaries.’

Russia is formally allied with Iran, and it is close to China. Neither is likely to get involved militarily, but they could provide weaponry or more air defences. However, any US attack would confirm strong suspicions of the USA in Beijing and Moscow.

And there is one last point. Trump’s every move could well push Iran to do the one thing he says he wants to stop: to develop a nuclear deterrent. It’s being threatened by two nuclear powers, the US and Israel. Despite Khamenei’s fatwah, there must be many in Iran who are asking, ‘Don’t we need our own weapons of mass destruction?’. We have many reasons to be scared of what a US attack on Iran might unleash.

¹ Majd Abuamer, ‘Detection, Neutralization, and Destruction, Al-Muntaqa’ in New Perspectives on Arab Studies, January/February 2024, Vol. 7, No. 1, Genocide in Gaza: The Ongoing Nakba (January/February 2024), pp.75-6.