Each side’s attempts at breaking through the stalemate risk the spiralling of the conflict out of control, writes Vladimir Unkovski-Korica

A week ago, on 6th August, Ukrainian troops crossed the border into Russia’s Kursk region, taking the Kremlin by surprise. Their offensive has expanded into the Belgorod region as well, forcing Moscow to evacuate tens of thousands from the border regions with Ukraine.

The incursion involves thousands of Western-armed Ukrainian soldiers who now control territory 30km inside Russia, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence. They have seized complete control of the town of Sudzha, near the Russia-Ukraine border, and are continuing to press forward.

This is the first sense of forward movement for the Ukrainian army since the autumn 2022 counter-offensive which recaptured swathes of the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. A Ukrainian soldier told The Economist: ‘For the first time in a long time we have movement. I feel like a tiger.’

The offensive has been greeted with cheer in Ukraine and the West, but it represents a major provocation by Kyiv. Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 was unjustified aggression, but it cannot be understood without reference to the long history of NATO’s aggressive eastern enlargement and attempts at incorporating Ukraine into the alliance.

Since February 2022, the Western powers have flooded Ukraine with weapons, trained its troops, provided it with intelligence, closely advised it on military strategy, and sent it covert aid in terms of military personnel in what has become a proxy war between the West and Russia.

Now, a NATO-trained and equipped army has crossed the Russian border, eliciting jubilation in the Western media. According to Ivan Katchanovski, an academic at the University of Ottawa, there is a battalion participating in the Kursk offensive named after the Nachtigall battalion, which was organised by the Nazi Germany’s military intelligence service Abwehr and operated as part of Stepan Bandera’s Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists during the Second World War.

It is simply impossible for this to be interpreted rationally as merely the act of a victim giving the aggressor the taste of his own medicine. Military experts question the military value of the offensive given Ukraine’s struggles elsewhere on the front and its lack of manpower. Moreover, the effect of the Kursk incursion is likely to inflame feeling in Russia against the West and give succour to Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric about the Russian invasion of Ukraine being purely defensive. If anything, international tensions will only rise after this, the latest in a long list of escalations by both sides.

In the last instance, the proxy war between NATO and Russia could turn into direct confrontation between nuclear powers with devastating consequences for humanity. Indeed, to underline the stakes, the lead story on today’s Financial Times website reveals that the Russian navy is being trained to target sites in Europe with nuclear-capable missiles. This comes days after Ukraine and Russia traded accusations over who had set a cooling tower of the Russia-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine on fire.

Whatever the truth of these accusations, what is clear is that Ukraine is engaging in a major act of brinksmanship, borne of desperation. Its army has been on the back foot ever since the failure of its summer offensive last year. Despite the belated arrival of critical American aid, held up for several months in late 2023 and early 2024 by Republican opposition in Congress, Ukraine faces a manpower shortage despite changing the law to draft younger categories of men.

This situation may do much to explain Kyiv’s extremely perilous move in recent days. Already stretched to the full, the Ukrainian army has suddenly shifted battle-hardened units from the frontlines in the embattled Donbas to cross an international border, and another potential red line for the Kremlin, to deliver headlines in the West. The attempt might well be to draw attention to Ukraine when it has fallen from the top news item given the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza and the threat of escalation of war in the Middle East. Countering the narrative that is losing, Kyiv is justifying continued Western military support.

It is also possible that Kyiv’s move into Russia may be an attempt at improving its position at the negotiating table in any future peace talks. There has been speculation that Ukraine hopes to capture a Russian nuclear power plant in Kurchatov, in the Kursk region, not far from the current front lines. Fearful of a potential Donald Trump victory in the November 2024 US presidential election, as he is seen as more likely to do a deal with the Kremlin than the Democrats, Ukrainian officials may think that seizing some Russian territory now to barter for lost Ukrainian territory in the future is worth the risk involved. Indeed, Zelensky probably sees this as a way of selling peace negotiations domestically if he faces opposition from hardline nationalist circles.

All that said, we are at a perilous crossroads. The war has been in a state of effective stalemate since autumn 2022, and each side’s attempts at breaking through risk the spiralling of the conflict out of control. This latest episode is no different, as underlined by the nuclear stakes involved. Surely, the stakes are too great for this war to carry on. The anti-war movement should redouble its efforts to push for a ceasefire and peace negotiations now. Just as in the Middle East, so in Eastern Europe, ordinary people will suffer the consequences of continuing escalation. We must act now to prevent further carnage.

Reposted from Stop the War