Chris Bambery looks at the issues behind unionist resistance to the latest Tory deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, and argues it’s the border that’s the problem

There was sigh of audible relief from politicians in London, Dublin, Brussels and Washington after a deal was struck between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, for a new Brexit deal over Northern Ireland’s position within both the United Kingdom and the European Union’s single market.

In simple terms goods entering Northern Ireland from Britain will have to go through two customs channels. Those bound for the Irish Republic, which is still a member of the European Union and its single market, go through a red channel with customs checks and extra paperwork. Those remaining in Northern Ireland will go through a green channel with virtually no checks.

That seems to resolve a central problem caused by the 2016 UK Brexit referendum. Northern Ireland, despite voting remain, was leaving the single market but the Irish Republic remained within it. The spectre was raised of a hard border being created between the two states, as existed until the 1970s with customs post and barriers. But this was ruled out by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA), translated into international law and guarded by the EU and the US. The Americans made it very clear they would not accept a hard border, a position which toughened up when Joe Biden entered the White House. He sees the GFA as one of the crowning achievements of his Democrat predecessor, Bill Clinton.

During his tenure in Downing Street Boris Johnson played fast and loose. At one stage he travelled to Belfast to address the conference of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the largest unionist grouping and at the time holding the position of First Minister in a power sharing coalition with the republicans of Sinn Fein who had come second to the DUP in Northern Ireland elections. Johnson promised the DUP there would be no border in the Irish Sea between Britain and Northern Ireland. Music to their ears. Johnson flew out and then did a deal with the EU imposing just that. Customs checks were put in place on goods arriving from Britain, while it remained within the EU single market. British sausages could not be sold there because they did not meet EU quality.

At this stage it’s important to recall that in 2016 Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU by a 55 percent majority. The DUP campaigned for leave and failed to carry the day. The way the British government acts it is as if Northern Ireland voted leave and the DUP reflects majority opinion.  It certainly does not, and, of course in last year’s Northern Ireland elections Sinn Féin overtook the DUP to become the party with the most votes.

The rise of Sinn Féin to become the most popular party in both Irish states -it is ahead in the polls in the Irish Republic as well –  is the most important issue because it opens the door to Irish unity. Under the terms of the GFA if both Irish parliaments vote for a referendum on unity it must take place.

Northern Ireland was created by Britain in 1921 as a unionist state for unionist people. Its boundary was gerrymandered to ensure a permanent unionist majority. But just over a century later that majority has evaporated and unionists and Loyalists see the writing on the wall. Loyalist paramilitaries, who still exist, unlike the Irish Republican Army, have attempted to ignite sectarian rioting, by attacking the security walls around nationalist West Belfast. There were ugly scenes but local residents did not react and it fizzled out.

Attention now focuses on whether the Democratic Unionist Party, Northern Ireland’s largest unionist party, and Tory Brexiteer MPs will endorse the new protocol. Jim Allister, leader of the small, hard-line Traditional Unionist Voice, a break away from the DUP, indicated he would oppose it because:

“This is a deal which does not address the fundamental constitutional affront of the protocol because it still leaves Northern Ireland the only part of the United Kingdom in a foreign single market for goods, and therefore subject of all the plethora of EU laws that govern that, and the European Court of Justice overseeing that. It still leaves us in a foreign customs code, and that’s why there will still be, despite what the prime minister has said, an Irish Sea border.”

Allister has been caught on video telling his supporters, “it’s all about not having a Fenian [Irish Republican] First Minister.

He might be dismissed as the TUV has just one member of the Northern Ireland Assembly but that ignores the reality – the DUP is under pressure from its right. A majority of DUP voters now believe the GFA was a mistake. In their collective memory they cherish the old days when Northern Ireland was run by the unionists as a one party state and nationalists were kept in place through repression and discrimination. But Humpty Dumpty has fallen and all the king’s horses, and all the king’s men cannot put Humpty together again.

Two DUP MPs, Ian Paisley Junior and Sammy Wilson, have indicated their dislike of the new protocol with the former saying “it doesn’t cut the mustard.” The question is whether Sunak will defy the DUP if they oppose his new protocol or will he do what successive British governments have done which is to pander to bigotry. He is in a position to defy them. He’s bought off Brexiteer critics like Chris Heaton-Harris, now Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, and Steve Baker, Minister of State for Northern Ireland, who since taking office have become poachers turned gamekeepers, endorsing Sunak’s agreement.

It would seem Sunak can see off any revolt by Brexiteer Tory MPs. The question is what he will do if the DUP reject his new offering.

Meanwhile, Sunak’s claim about Northern Ireland becoming the ‘world’s most exciting economic zone’ is almost laughable. Northern Ireland is a branch economy of Britain and suffers all its ills. Productivity and investment (closely linked) in Britain are among the lowest in the G20 economies. They are even lower in Northern Ireland and far, far lower than those of the Irish Republic. Low wages might attract international investors but low skills and low productivity don’t make it particularly attractive.

The partition of Ireland has served the people of Northern Ireland, whatever their political stance or religion, badly. Wages were always lower than in Britain and unemployment higher. Once politicians in the north could look down on the Irish Republic as a poor relative but not today, whatever its undoubted faults. This mess was not created by Brexit. It was created by partition. Irish unity is the answer. But it has to be unity which benefits the majority of people in Ireland.